Gold prices continue to face downward pressure, posting losses for the third consecutive day, trading within a bearish channel on the four-hour timeframe. The yellow metal is currently trading near the first support level of $3,970; if it breaks below this level, it will continue to fall toward the next support level at $3,908. On the upside, if the price gains momentum, it could retest resistance levels near $4,081 then $4,134.
Global financial markets are closely monitoring a combination of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments that continue to shape investor sentiment. Attention remains focused on the Middle East after Iran announced it would hold talks with mediators in Doha rather than engage directly with U.S. officials, keeping diplomatic efforts and regional stability in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened as rising Treasury yields reinforced demand for the greenback amid expectations for higher interest rates. At the same time, oil prices extended their gains, supported by renewed concerns over global supply, adding to inflationary pressures and influencing the outlook for energy markets worldwide.
Market Watch
Iran, Qatar: Tehran to meet mediators in Doha, not U.S. officials
Iran and Qatar have confirmed that the upcoming talks in Doha will be conducted through mediators, with no direct meetings planned between Iranian and U.S. officials, underscoring the continued reliance on indirect diplomacy to advance negotiations.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tehran has not scheduled any face-to-face meetings with U.S. officials in the coming days, noting that discussions will be limited to technical consultations conducted through Qatari mediation. The talks are expected to focus on addressing outstanding issues and building on previous understandings.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that U.S. envoys in Doha will meet with Qatari officials and mediators rather than Iranian representatives, reaffirming Doha’s role in facilitating dialogue and helping bridge differences between the two sides.
The developments come as global markets closely monitor any progress in the negotiations, amid ongoing concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy markets. Investors continue to view the outcome of these indirect discussions as an important indicator of the prospects for wider diplomatic progress and a potential easing of regional tensions in the period ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index Rises Amid Higher Treasury Yields
The U.S. Dollar Index advanced on Wednesday, supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields as investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, while markets await key U.S. labor market data later this week.
The greenback gained momentum after the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to around 4.46%, with recent economic data reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer, or even be raised further if inflationary pressures persist.
The Dollar Index hovered near 101.3, posting gains against most major currencies. Meanwhile, the euro and the British pound weakened, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level in four decades against the U.S. dollar as the yield gap between the United States and Japan continued to widen.
Investors are also closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials, along with upcoming U.S. employment data, including the ADP Employment Report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, for fresh clues on the future path of U.S. monetary policy.
Analysts believe that continued strength in Treasury yields could provide further support for the U.S. dollar in the near term, particularly if labor market data exceed expectations, reinforcing the case for a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy and adding pressure on gold and other major currencies.
Supply Concerns Support Oil Price Gains
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, supported by growing concerns over global supply disruptions as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted and prospects for direct negotiations between the United States and Iran remained uncertain, reinforcing fears that restrictions on Iranian oil exports could continue.
Brent crude climbed to trade near $68 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose above $66 per barrel, supported by a higher geopolitical risk premium amid ongoing concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil trade passes.
Prices also received support from expectations of a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, as investors awaited the release of official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which could provide fresh signals on the balance between supply and demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming economy.
However, gains were capped by concerns over slowing global economic growth, with investors continuing to assess the impact of higher interest rates on global energy demand while also awaiting the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on production levels for the coming months.
Analysts believe that persistent geopolitical tensions, combined with an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, could provide additional upside for oil prices in the near term, particularly if concerns over global supply continue to intensify.
Looking Ahead
Markets are now awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data later today, including the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Investors will closely monitor the employment figures for fresh signals on labor market strength, while the manufacturing survey is expected to provide further insight into the health of the U.S. industrial sector. The results could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and drive volatility across the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and precious metals markets.