Gold prices rose 0.3% in early trading on Monday, recouping some of the previous session’s 1.7% loss, and the price is currently looking to break above the key level of $4,700 per ounce.
Gold is currently trading above the weekly pivot point at $4631. It is worth noting that if the price remains above this level, it could resume its key uptrend, heading toward resistance levels at $4845 then $5015.
If gold fails to hold above the weekly pivot point at $4631, it may test the first weekly support level at $4642, a break below this level would be a negative signal that could intensify selling pressure, paving the way for prices to decline toward the second support level at $4248.
In terms of geopolitical escalation, On the one hand, Iran and the United States have received a framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several media outlets reported, citing sources aware of the proposals.
According to the Associated Press, the plan has been put together by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey and was exchanged with both sides overnight. It reportedly follows a two-stage approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a broader comprehensive agreement.
Meanwhile, Axios first reported Sunday that the U.S., Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.
Yet despite hopes for an impending end to the fighting, the war has continued to intensify, with Iran and Israel launching fresh strikes at each other. Over the weekend, in a social media post and media interviews, U.S. President Donald Trump also issued a new warning that the U.S. would strike Iran’s power facilities if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is not unblocked by Tuesday evening. Iran has rejected the ultimatum.
From a fundamental perspective, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for February will be unveiled, with analysts forecasting an annualized pace of 3% and 0.4% month-on-month. The gauge will receive particular attention, as it is widely considered to be one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metrics.
Furthermore, the U.S. will release its final GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2025, with analysts expecting the growth rate to remain steady at 0.7%, in line with the third-quarter reading.
Finally, the FOMC meeting minutes due Wednesday may offer clearer guidance on the Fed’s policy path, with any signals on future interest rates likely to influence market movements.