Gold rose on Thursday, extending its gains for the second consecutive day after holding above the key level of $4,000. The yellow metal is currently looking to hold above the bearish channel’s middle line, targeting resistance levels at $4,129 then $4,178. On the downside, if the price falls below the channel’s middle line, it could test support levels near $4,007 then $3,962.
Financial markets traded cautiously on Thursday as investors weighed a series of developments shaping the outlook for global growth and monetary policy. Oil prices declined after the United States and Iran concluded indirect talks in Doha, easing immediate concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, signaling that price stability remains the Fed’s top priority despite mounting calls for lower interest rates. At the same time, weaker-than-expected U.S. private-sector employment data reinforced expectations of a cooling labor market, leaving investors focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Market Watch
Oil Declines Following the Conclusion of U.S.-Iran Talks in Doha
Oil prices fell during Thursday’s trading, extending losses for a third consecutive session after the United States and Iran concluded a round of indirect talks in Doha, Qatar. Signs of progress in discussions over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
Brent crude futures declined by around 1% to trade near $70.8 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to approximately $67.7 per barrel, as investors assessed the outcome of the negotiations and their implications for the stability of Middle East oil exports.
According to Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the talks made “positive progress” on issues related to the memorandum of understanding that ended hostilities in June. However, the two sides did not reach a final agreement on a broader settlement. Discussions focused primarily on securing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen Iranian assets, while the Iranian nuclear program was not a central topic of the negotiations.
Oil prices also came under additional pressure from expectations of rising global supply, as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued uninterrupted and markets awaited the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where producers are widely expected to approve another production increase starting in August.
Analysts said that easing geopolitical tensions in the region has reduced the risk premium previously embedded in oil prices, while investors continue to monitor developments in U.S.-Iran relations for any potential impact on global energy supplies.
Kevin Warsh Pledges Commitment to the 2% Inflation Target
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, stressing that the central bank will not tolerate inflation persistently above that level despite growing political pressure to lower interest rates. His remarks came during the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Warsh said, “Anyone who believes this central bank will accept an inflation target above 2% will be disappointed,” emphasizing that price stability remains the Federal Reserve’s primary objective. He also reiterated the importance of preserving the Fed’s independence, despite repeated calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for lower interest rates.
The Fed Chair noted that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks but cautioned that the central bank’s job is not yet complete. He added that policymakers will continue to rely on incoming economic data when making interest rate decisions and declined to provide forward guidance on the timing of future policy moves.
Warsh also announced plans to modernize the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process by incorporating more real-time economic data, a move aimed at improving the accuracy and responsiveness of monetary policy as economic conditions evolve.
Analysts said Warsh’s comments reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious monetary policy stance until inflation moves sustainably toward its 2% target. Investors are now awaiting additional U.S. economic data for further clues on the outlook for interest rates.
U.S. Private Sector Adds Fewer Jobs Than Expected in June
Data released by ADP on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added fewer jobs than expected in June, signaling a continued slowdown in hiring across the U.S. economy.
According to the report, the private sector added 95,000 jobs in June, compared with analysts’ expectations of approximately 150,000 jobs, while May’s figure was revised to 125,000 jobs.
The increase in employment was driven primarily by the services and healthcare sectors, while industries such as manufacturing and transportation experienced a noticeable slowdown in hiring amid persistently high borrowing costs and weaker demand among some businesses.
ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said that the U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate resilience, but the pace of job creation has become more moderate compared with previous months, reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy over the past two years.
The report comes ahead of the release of the official U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which investors are closely watching for further insight into the strength of the U.S. economy and the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months.
Following the release of the data, the U.S. dollar edged lower, while investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year if signs of labor market moderation continue.
Looking Ahead
Markets are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the U.S. unemployment rate, both of which are expected to provide fresh insights into the strength of the labor market and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors will closely monitor the data for signs of cooling employment conditions. The reports are widely expected to be key drivers of market sentiment across the U.S. dollar, gold, equities, and Treasury yields.