Gold stabilized on Wednesday, as it continues to await further positive momentum to regain its upward march in the near term. The yellow metal is currently trading above the bearish channel’s middle line on the four-hour chart; if it holds above, it could rise toward resistance levels at $4,207 then $4,248. On the downside, if the price falls below the channel’s middle line, it may decline toward support levels near $4,110 then $4,070.
Financial markets are closely monitoring developments across the oil, currency, and bond markets as geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy continue to influence investor sentiment. Oil prices have risen following renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran relations, while the U.S. dollar remains near multi-month highs, supported by elevated interest-rate expectations. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are holding near multi-decade highs, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and rising energy costs. Investors are now awaiting key U.S. economic data, including employment, inflation, and GDP figures, for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the broader direction of global markets.
Market Watch
Oil Prices Rise After Trump Denies Readiness to Ease Iran Sanctions
Oil prices rose during Wednesday’s trading session after U.S. President Donald Trump denied reports that Washington was prepared to ease sanctions imposed on Iran, renewing uncertainty over the outlook for Iranian oil supplies.
Brent crude futures for November delivery rose by around $1.14, or 1.11%, to $103.73 per barrel early in the session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained around 34 cents, or 0.38%, to $89.72 per barrel.
The gains came after Trump rejected a media report based on U.S. officials’ comments suggesting that Washington could offer sanctions relief to Iran and allow the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps by Tehran regarding its nuclear program. Trump said the reports were incorrect and that he had offered Iran nothing.
Meanwhile, Qatar continues its mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran in an attempt to reach an agreement and reduce tensions. However, negotiations remain difficult. Iran has reportedly received a U.S. response through Qatari mediators regarding a proposed seven-day confidence-building plan, while disagreements remain over the sequence and implementation of the proposed measures.
Investors are closely monitoring developments in U.S.-Iranian relations and their potential impact on global oil supplies, particularly amid continued concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Gulf oil exports have begun to recover, with Goldman Sachs estimating that Gulf oil exports increased to around 23.3 million barrels per day last week, broadly in line with the 2025 average.
Despite Wednesday’s gains, Brent crude is heading for a strong monthly increase of around 13–14% in September, while WTI is on track for a gain of approximately 4%, according to Reuters data during Wednesday’s trading session.
U.S. Treasury Yields Hold Near Multi-Decade Highs
U.S. Treasury yields remained near their highest levels in several decades during Wednesday’s trading session, as inflationary pressures and rising energy costs continued to weigh on markets, while investors awaited new economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note stood at around 5.24% during Asian trading, remaining close to its highest level since June 2007, after rising by approximately 50 basis points during September, marking its largest monthly increase in nearly two years.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to around 5.59% early in Wednesday’s session, after reaching its highest level since June 2002 in the previous session. Rising yields reflect declining bond prices amid continued selling pressure across global fixed-income markets.
These movements come as investors face growing concerns over inflation and higher energy prices, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil prices can intensify concerns about persistent inflationary pressures, potentially prompting central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
In the United States, investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, one of the inflation indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, along with the U.S. employment report due later in the week. These data releases could provide further indications of the persistence of inflationary pressures and their potential impact on upcoming interest-rate decisions.
Although the two-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower, it remained elevated compared with previous levels. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated that policymakers are closely monitoring incoming economic data before making further decisions on interest rates.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields are considered an important factor across financial markets, as they influence borrowing costs for governments, companies, and households. Treasury yields are also widely used as a benchmark for valuing various financial assets, including stocks, currencies, and gold.
Dollar Hovers Near Multi-Month Highs
The U.S. dollar remained near its highest levels in several months during Wednesday’s trading session, supported by expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain elevated, alongside higher Treasury yields and continued uncertainty surrounding energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
According to market data, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stood at around 101.45 points during Wednesday’s session, after touching 101.61 points on Tuesday, its highest level of September. The index has risen by approximately 1.75% since the beginning of the month.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar moved close to its highest level of the year against the euro, with the euro falling to around $1.1312, its lowest level since May 2025, before trading near $1.1339 during Asian hours. The dollar is on track for its strongest monthly gain against the European currency in 14 months, supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy and higher interest-rate expectations.
The dollar also received support from a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, amid growing concerns over inflation driven by higher oil prices. These developments have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer.
However, some recent U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials have limited the dollar’s upward momentum. Data showed that U.S. job openings fell to 7.08 million in August, while the consumer confidence index declined to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August, reducing market expectations for an interest-rate hike in October.
Investors are now focusing on upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data, which could provide further signals on the future path of monetary policy, alongside developments in oil prices and tensions between the United States and Iran, which remain important factors influencing the dollar and global foreign exchange markets.
Looking Ahead
Markets are awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data, including the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Investors will closely assess the figures for further indications of labor-market conditions, underlying inflationary pressures, and the pace of economic growth. The data could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, particularly the outlook for interest rates and the U.S. dollar.