As global markets continue to grapple with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, three major developments today are shaping investor behavior and asset prices. U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration that Washington could conclude its military campaign against Iran within “two to three weeks” has bolstered hopes of a near‑term de‑escalation in the Middle East, easing fear‑driven flows into traditional safe havens. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened as traders increasingly price in reduced geopolitical risk, prompting a shift out of defensive holdings and into riskier assets. Adding to the market’s focus, Trump is scheduled to deliver a nationally broadcast address on Iran later today, a speech that investors hope will clarify U.S. intentions and potentially cement hopes for calmer global conditions. This intertwined news is driving pronounced effects across financial markets this morning — from the FX and equity arenas to commodities — with gold in particular rising with a softer dollar.
Gold prices surged on Wednesday, supported by their consolidation above the bearish channel’s middle line. The yellow metal is currently poised to resume its key uptrend, targeting resistance levels of $4779 and then $4857. On the other hand, if the price falls below the aforesaid channel’s middle line, it may test support levels near $4537 and then $4452.
Market Watch
Trump: U.S. could end Iran’s war within two to three weeks
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could conclude its military campaign against Iran within “two to three weeks,” offering his most definitive timeline yet for ending a conflict that has escalated rapidly across the Middle East.
Speaking at the White House, Trump indicated that a diplomatic agreement with Tehran is not a prerequisite for ending the war. Instead, he stressed that U.S. forces would withdraw once Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities are sufficiently degraded, particularly its ability to develop nuclear weapons.
The remarks come as the conflict, now roughly a month old, continues to expand geographically. Recent days have seen intensified airstrikes, missile exchanges, and attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, raising concerns about broader regional instability and disruptions to global oil supplies.
Despite Trump’s optimistic timeline, uncertainty remains high. Iranian officials have signaled readiness for a prolonged confrontation, dismissing suggestions of imminent negotiations and emphasizing that no formal talks with Washington are currently underway.
Financial markets reacted swiftly to Trump’s remarks, with global equities rallying on hopes of de-escalation. European shares posted strong gains, reflecting investor optimism that a shorter conflict could ease pressure on energy prices and inflation.
Dollar dips amid hopes for de-escalation with Iran
The U.S. dollar weakened against major global currencies on Wednesday as investors reacted to growing optimism that tensions between Washington and Tehran could ease in the coming weeks, reducing demand for the greenback as a traditional safe-haven asset.
The dollar index slipped notably after recent gains, as market participants reassessed geopolitical risks following signals that the conflict in the Middle East may not be prolonged. The currency had previously surged during the height of the crisis, benefiting from strong safe-haven inflows amid fears of wider regional escalation and disruptions to global energy supplies.
The latest pullback reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Hopes for de-escalation—fueled by political statements suggesting a possible end to hostilities—have encouraged a move away from defensive assets toward equities and higher-yielding currencies. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as traders increased bets on potential monetary easing if geopolitical pressures subside.
Trump to address nation on Iran amid market anticipation
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to address the nation on Wednesday evening regarding the ongoing conflict with Iran in a highly anticipated speech that investors and global leaders alike are watching closely for signals on the next phase of the war.
The announcement comes at a pivotal moment in the conflict, which began in late February and has since escalated into a broad regional confrontation involving missile exchanges, airstrikes, and disruptions to key energy infrastructure. According to the White House, the address will provide an “important update,” raising expectations that Trump may outline a path toward de-escalation or signal a shift in U.S. military strategy.
In recent days, Trump has suggested that the United States could conclude its military operations within “two to three weeks,” indicating that the campaign may be entering its final phase. He has also emphasized that ending the war does not depend on reaching a formal agreement with Tehran, but rather on weakening Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities.
Financial markets are bracing for the speech, with investor sentiment highly sensitive to any indication of de-escalation. Over the past month, geopolitical tensions have driven significant volatility across asset classes, particularly in energy and currency markets.
Looking Ahead
Markets are awaiting U.S. retail sales at 12:30 GMT, which will impact global gold prices.