Gold held onto its gains on Tuesday, managing to stabilize above the daily pivot point at $4296. The yellow metal is currently looking to regain its key uptrend, heading toward resistance levels at $4358 then $4395. On the downside, if the price falls below the aforesaid pivot point, it may test support levels near $4258 then $4214.

Global markets are closely monitoring a significant shift in geopolitical and financial conditions after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end the war, easing concerns over disruptions to global trade and energy supplies. The development has weighed on safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar, pushing the Dollar Index toward its lowest level in more than a week, while oil prices have retreated as investors anticipate the return of additional supply to the market. Together, these events have improved risk sentiment across financial markets and reshaped expectations for currencies, commodities, and broader economic activity in the months ahead.

Market Watch

United States and Iran Reach Preliminary Agreement to End the War

The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the ongoing conflict between the two countries, marking the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of hostilities several months ago.

According to reports, the agreement includes an initial framework for a ceasefire and the cessation of military operations, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and the resumption of trade and energy flows through the strategic waterway. The deal also calls for a 60-day negotiation period to address outstanding issues, including Iran’s nuclear program and the economic sanctions imposed on Tehran.

Officials from both sides stated that the agreement remains in its early stages and that several technical and political details have yet to be finalized. Nevertheless, they described it as an important step toward reducing tensions and restoring stability in the region. A formal signing ceremony is expected to take place in Switzerland in the coming days with the participation of international mediators involved in the negotiations.

The agreement has been welcomed by several international stakeholders, who view it as a positive development that could contribute to regional security and lower geopolitical risks. However, key issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear activities and broader regional security arrangements, are expected to require further negotiations before a comprehensive settlement can be achieved.

News of the agreement quickly impacted global financial markets, with oil prices declining amid expectations of more stable energy supplies and a reduction in geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East.

Dollar Index Near Its Lowest Level in More Than a Week

The U.S. Dollar Index remained close to its lowest level in more than a week on Tuesday, as demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset weakened following the announcement of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global trade.

The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, traded near its lowest level in ten days as improving risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions reduced investor demand for the dollar.

The euro and the British pound benefited from the weaker dollar, with the euro rising toward its highest levels in several days while sterling posted modest gains against the U.S. currency. Oil prices also declined sharply after news of the agreement, supporting demand for higher-risk assets.

Investors are now focusing on this week’s meetings of major central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, for fresh signals regarding the path of interest rates during the second half of the year. Market expectations suggest that the Fed may leave interest rates unchanged while continuing to assess inflation trends and labor market conditions.

Analysts believe that a sustained easing of geopolitical tensions could limit the dollar’s upside potential in the near term. However, movements in the U.S. currency are expected to remain largely driven by Federal Reserve policy decisions and upcoming economic data releases.

Oil Prices Decline as Markets Await the Return of Supply

Oil prices fell during Tuesday’s trading session as investors closely monitored developments surrounding the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran, which strengthened expectations that additional crude supplies could return to global markets in the coming months.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined after posting strong gains earlier this month, as markets reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Price pressures emerged amid expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened to international shipping, a move that could facilitate the flow of oil and natural gas from the region to global consumers. Traders are also assessing the possibility of easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports should further progress be made in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

At the same time, investors are awaiting fresh data on U.S. crude inventories and global energy demand forecasts, while uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic growth during the second half of the year continues to influence market sentiment.

Analysts believe that additional progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations could lead to further downside pressure on oil prices in the short term. However, markets are expected to remain focused on decisions by major oil producers and developments in global demand to determine the next direction for prices.

Despite the current decline, oil prices continue to receive some support from ongoing geopolitical risks in other regions and from OPEC+ production management policies aimed at maintaining market stability.

Oil Prices Decline as Markets Await the Return of Supply

Oil prices fell during Tuesday’s trading session as investors closely monitored developments surrounding the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran, which strengthened expectations that additional crude supplies could return to global markets in the coming months.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined after posting strong gains earlier this month, as markets reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Price pressures emerged amid expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened to international shipping, a move that could facilitate the flow of oil and natural gas from the region to global consumers. Traders are also assessing the possibility of easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports should further progress be made in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

At the same time, investors are awaiting fresh data on U.S. crude inventories and global energy demand forecasts, while uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic growth during the second half of the year continues to influence market sentiment.

Analysts believe that additional progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations could lead to further downside pressure on oil prices in the short term. However, markets are expected to remain focused on decisions by major oil producers and developments in global demand to determine the next direction for prices.

Despite the current decline, oil prices continue to receive some support from ongoing geopolitical risks in other regions and from OPEC+ production management policies aimed at maintaining market stability.