Gold inched up on Tuesday as it held above the daily pivot point of $4634. The yellow metal is currently looking to hold above the bearish channel’s middle line to test resistance levels near $4715 then $4784. On the other hand, if the price falls below the channel’s middle line, it may touch support levels of $4558 then $4492.
Global markets opened the week on a cautious footing, as investors closely monitor escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of Donald Trump’s midnight GMT deadline for Iran—a critical moment that could determine the next phase of the ongoing conflict. Market sentiment has been increasingly fragile, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach amid fears of potential military escalation and its ripple effects on energy prices and global growth.
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran has rejected proposals for a temporary ceasefire, instead insisting on a permanent end to hostilities and firm guarantees, complicating diplomatic efforts and prolonging market anxiety. This stance has dampened hopes for a near-term resolution, keeping volatility elevated across commodities and financial assets, particularly as the situation threatens key energy supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, currency markets are reflecting a more nuanced picture, with the U.S. dollar coming under pressure after recent data signaled a modest slowdown in the U.S. services sector. The softer economic readings have prompted investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy, contributing to a pullback in the Dollar Index despite ongoing safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks.
Markets are aware as Trump’s deadline draws near
As US President Donald Trump’s 20:00 EST deadline for Iran to negotiate a deal to end the conflict draws closer, markets maintain a cautious posture early on Tuesday. Due to this caution, European stocks muted today. At 07:15 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index had risen by 0.1%, reaching 597.24 points. Major regional markets saw flat to higher trading, with London’s FTSE 100 up 0.1% and Germany’s DAX down 0.1%. Following an extended Easter weekend in Europe that included the Good Friday and Easter Monday vacations, trading resumed.
Iran turns down temporary ceasefire, demands permanent end to conflict
According to state media, Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day truce in its conflict with Israel and the United States, calling for a permanent end to hostilities. The news agency IRNA stated, “Iran has conveyed to Pakistan its response to the American proposal to end the war,” although it did not specify what was included in the offer. “In this response—set out in ten points—Iran… has rejected a ceasefire and insists on the need for a definitive end to the conflict. ” As Washington considered a suggested temporary ceasefire, Iran’s army spokesperson earlier stated that the nation will battle the United States and Israel for as long as its political leaders see fit, stressing the “need to reach a point of security and not witness another war.” “The enemy must definitely regret it because, after this war, we need to reach a point of security and not witness another war,” Mohammad Akraminia told ISNA. “We can continue the war as long as the political authorities see fit.”
Dollar index falls after modest slowdown in U.S. services sector
The U.S. dollar retreated on Tuesday, giving up some of its recent gains, after fresh economic data pointed to a modest slowdown in the country’s dominant services sector. The decline in the dollar index reflects growing investor caution regarding the strength of the US economy, amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy in the coming period.
According to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. services sector expanded at a slower pace in March, with its non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in below market expectations. While the index remained in expansion territory—above the 50-point threshold—it signaled cooling momentum in business activity, new orders, and employment within the sector.
The services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, has been a key pillar of resilience in recent months. However, the latest data suggests that higher borrowing costs and persistent inflationary pressures may be starting to weigh on demand. Businesses surveyed noted softer client spending and increased uncertainty regarding economic forecasts; these trends were reflected in the pace of employment and investment. In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped during early trading sessions. The decline comes after a period of strength driven by safe-haven demand and expectations that U.S. interest rates would remain elevated for longer. However, signs of economic moderation have prompted traders to reassess those assumptions.
Investors are now awaiting the next steps from the US Federal Reserve, especially given the mixed economic data across different sectors.
Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates for a longer period rather than pursuing further tightening. This shift in expectations has weighed on U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn reduced the attractiveness of the dollar compared to other major currencies.
Meanwhile, other global currencies saw modest gains against the dollar, supported by improved risk sentiment and relative economic stability in their respective regions. The euro and the British pound both edged higher, benefiting from the dollar’s pullback.
Analysts note that while the dollar’s decline may be limited in the near term—given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and its status as a safe-haven asset—future movements will likely depend heavily on incoming U.S. economic data. Key indicators to watch include inflation readings, labor market reports, and further updates on business activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Looking Ahead
The US Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders for February in the second part of the day, along with weekly ADP Employment Change 4-week average data.