Gold slipped more than 5% on Monday to ‌hit its lowest level in four months, after logging its biggest weekly loss in about 43 years last week, as an escalating Middle East conflict stoked inflation concerns and raised expectations of higher global interest rates.

Gold is currently trading below the first weekly support level at $4301, a sustained move beneath this level, it could extend its significant losses and head toward testing the second weekly support level at $4106.

If gold manages to break above the first support level at $4301 then the weekly pivot point at $4673, it may test the first weekly resistance level at $4869. A break above this level would be a positive signal that could boost buying momentum, paving the way for prices to rise toward the second resistance level at

$5240.

In terms of geopolitical escalation, the new week is expected to be driven largely by developments in the Middle East, as the joint U.S.–Israeli offensive on Iran enters its fourth week.

Investor concerns have intensified that a prolonged conflict could drive energy prices higher, reigniting global inflationary pressures and prompting central banks to adopt more hawkish policy stances.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran to reopen the strait by Monday night or face attacks on key power plants, although the threat has been met with a flat rejection by Tehran. The Islamic Republic warned that the strait would stay “completely closed” should its energy infrastructure be targeted.

In the same vein, Trump’s messaging on the conflict has been inconsistent, adding to uncertainty over Washington’s timeline for the war. While he has threatened to “obliterate” key power facilities in Iran, he has also indicated that the campaign may be approaching a “winding down” phase.

From a fundamental perspective, this week will be relatively light on data, as the U.S. services and manufacturing PMI for March are likely to grab attention. If the data exceeds expectations, it could negatively impact gold prices.

On the flip side, a deterioration in performance of these major sectors could have a positive impact on gold prices.

Finally, U.S. jobless claims data is expected to show a rise to 211,000 from a previous of 205,000. If the data comes in higher than expected, it could raise concerns about the health of the labor market, while the opposite is true.