Gold prices rose slightly during Wednesday, as they continue to await further positive momentum to sustain their gains in the near term. If the yellow metal finds this momentum, it could test the following resistance levels: $4,435 then $4,476. On the downside, if the price falls below the daily pivot point at $4,368, it could decline toward support levels near $4,331 then $4,295.
Global markets remain focused on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after separate attacks by the United States and Iran-aligned Houthi forces targeted commercial vessels, raising fresh concerns over the security of key maritime trade routes. The renewed uncertainty has pushed oil prices higher as supply disruption risks intensify, while the U.S. dollar continues to hold on to its recent gains ahead of closely watched U.S. inflation data and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Market Wath
United States and Houthis Attack Ships in the Gulf
Shipping routes in the region witnessed renewed escalation after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis carried out separate attacks on two vessels on Tuesday, August 11, as risks to maritime traffic continue to rise amid ongoing tensions linked to the war with Iran.
In the southern Red Sea, the Houthis attacked the Egyptian-owned cargo vessel “Tahama” in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Yemeni coast. According to Yemeni authorities, four crew members were killed in the attack—three Pakistanis and one Indonesian. Two members of the Yemeni forces involved in the rescue operation were also killed, while around ten people were injured.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it launched two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged container ship “Villa Nova” in the Gulf of Oman, accusing the vessel of attempting to breach the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and head toward an Iranian port. According to Reuters, the operation marked the twelfth U.S. intervention of this type since April.
The developments come as shipping activity in the region has declined significantly. The number of vessels detected in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in a week, reflecting growing concerns over the impact of the military escalation on global trade and energy supplies.
The intensification of attacks on commercial vessels is increasing pressure on shipping companies, as security risks remain elevated across the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz—strategic waterways through which significant volumes of global trade and energy shipments pass.
Oil Prices Continue to Rise
Oil prices continued their upward trajectory on Wednesday, August 12, as renewed concerns over disruptions to crude supplies in the Middle East intensified following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Brent crude rose by around 90 cents, or 1%, to $89.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 88 cents to reach $84.08 per barrel. The gains came as investors reassessed the risks to global energy supplies amid escalating tensions in the region.
The latest attacks on shipping have heightened fears that disruptions to maritime traffic could persist. Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply, with only eight transits recently recorded compared with around 125–140 vessels per day before the conflict. The strait is a critical route for global oil shipments, making any prolonged disruption a major concern for energy markets.
Adding to market uncertainty, Iran has indicated that it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed unless the United States agrees to its conditions for ending the war. The lack of progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement has therefore continued to support oil prices by increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories could provide some relief to supply concerns. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 9.1 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, although gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Investors are awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official inventory data for further indications of market balance.
With geopolitical risks remaining elevated and uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the region, particularly any further attacks on commercial shipping or progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace agreement.
Dollar Holds on to Its Gains
The U.S. dollar held on to its gains against major currencies on Wednesday, August 12, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region and ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data that could provide important signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to around 99.85, extending its recent recovery as investors sought the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The yen weakened slightly against the dollar, while the euro and Australian dollar also edged lower.
Market attention is focused on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with investors assessing whether inflationary pressures could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision at its September meeting. Markets are currently divided over the possibility of a rate hike in September, making the inflation data particularly significant for the dollar’s near-term direction.
Geopolitical developments are also supporting the U.S. currency. Renewed tensions involving Iran, the United States and Iran-aligned Houthi forces have increased uncertainty across financial markets, while concerns over the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to higher oil prices and strengthened demand for safe-haven assets.
The dollar is therefore expected to remain sensitive to both U.S. economic data and developments in the Middle East. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and provide further support for the dollar, while weaker inflation could increase expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance.
Looking Ahead
Markets are awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with the data expected to provide fresh clues about the direction of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors will closely assess the figures for signs of persistent price pressures, as stronger-than-expected reading could reduce expectations for interest-rate cuts, while softer inflation could strengthen bets on a more accommodative policy stance.