Gold prices fell slightly on Friday, erasing some of the gains recorded in the previous session. The yellow metal is currently attempting to stabilize above the daily pivot point at $4720 to retest resistance levels at $4807 and then $4863. On the downside, if the price fails to gain positive momentum, the decline could extend toward support levels of $4651 and then $4588.
Global markets are navigating a delicate balance between easing geopolitical tensions and lingering economic uncertainty. The United States has accused Iran of breaching its commitments regarding free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping concerns elevated despite a recently announced ceasefire and limiting a full return to normal shipping activity.
At the same time, the U.S. The dollar has posted modest gains, even as softer economic data points to a gradual slowdown in domestic momentum, with safe-haven demand and cautious investor sentiment providing underlying support. In contrast, oil markets have reacted more directly to geopolitical developments, with Brent crude falling by 11% this week as the ceasefire agreement helped unwind a significant portion of the previously priced-in risk premium.
Together, these developments highlight a fragile market environment, where improving geopolitical conditions are being offset by economic headwinds, leaving key asset classes—from currencies to commodities—driven by shifting sentiment and short-term catalysts rather than clear directional trends.
Market Watch
U.S. claims Iran broke commitments on Hormuz passage
The United States has accused Iran of failing to uphold its commitments under the recently brokered ceasefire agreement, citing continued restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global energy flows.
According to U.S. Officials, the ceasefire framework, agreed earlier this week, included provisions to ensure the “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the strait to international shipping. However, Washington now argues that Tehran has effectively maintained control over the passage, limiting vessel movement and imposing conditions that contradict the spirit of the agreement.
Recent data from maritime monitoring firms shows that shipping activity through the strait remains severely constrained, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily compared to more than 100 under normal conditions. This has reinforced U.S. claims that Iran is selectively allowing passage rather than restoring full freedom of navigation.
The dollar posts modest gains despite soft economic data
The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday, posting modest gains against a basket of major currencies despite a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases that pointed to a gradual cooling in domestic activity.
The rebound in the greenback comes as investors reassess near-term expectations for monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, weighing signs of slowing growth against persistent inflation risks. While recent data has shown some loss of momentum in key sectors, including services activity and consumer spending, markets remain cautious about pricing in an aggressive shift toward rate cuts.
Earlier this week, reports indicated a slowdown in the U.S. services sector, with business activity expanding at a softer pace than anticipated. At the same time, labor market indicators have shown early signs of easing, although overall conditions remain relatively resilient. This mixed data environment has created uncertainty regarding the future course of monetary policy; this supports limited movements in the dollar rather than a clear direction.
Brent crude oil falls by 11% this week due to a ceasefire agreement
Brent crude oil prices recorded a sharp weekly decline of approximately 11%, marking one of the steepest drops in recent months, as easing geopolitical tensions following a ceasefire agreement reduced concerns over supply disruptions.
The downturn comes after a breakthrough in negotiations between key regional actors in the Middle East, leading to a temporary halt in hostilities that had previously threatened the stability of critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Markets had previously priced in the risk of a large-scale escalation, driving higher prices, but the ceasefire announcement led to a rapid decline in the geopolitical risk premium.
From a fundamental standpoint, the ceasefire has significantly lowered the probability of disruptions in vital النفط supply corridors, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of global oil exports flows. This development has reassured markets that near-term supply risks are less severe than previously anticipated.