Gold continued its sharp decline on Wednesday, as it remained below SMA (9) on the four-hour chart. The yellow metal is currently trading near the first support level of $4558, if it breaks below this level, the decline could extend toward the second support level at $4500. On the upside, if the price rises above the upper line of the descending sub-channel, it may retest resistance levels at $4691 then $4745.
Global markets remain on edge as investors closely monitor a mix of geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and key monetary policy decisions. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the delay in addressing Iran’s nuclear program within ongoing negotiations, raising concerns over prolonged instability in the Middle East. At the same time, Brent crude oil prices continue to hold above $110 per barrel, supported by fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating regional tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains steady as markets await the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, with investors focusing on signals that could shape the future path of monetary policy and global financial conditions.
Market Watch
Trump dissatisfied with delaying the Nuclear Program Agreement
Reports emerged today indicating that U.S. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the latest Iranian proposal regarding ending the ongoing tensions due to the postponement of discussions over Iran’s nuclear program to a later stage instead of addressing it at the beginning of negotiations.
According to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, the Iranian proposal included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing military escalation in exchange for postponing talks related to Iran’s nuclear program until after the end of the war and the resolution of disputes concerning shipping movement in the Gulf. However, Washington believes that the nuclear file must be a core part of any agreement from the outset, rather than a delayed issue.
The official stated that Trump “does not like this proposal,” noting that the U.S. administration believes accepting such an arrangement could weaken its negotiating position later, particularly regarding halting uranium enrichment and ensuring that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons.
Trump reportedly held a meeting with senior national security advisers to review the Iranian offer, amid continued political deadlock, while the crisis continues to impact global energy markets and raise concerns over oil supplies, especially with tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved.
Analysts believe that failure to reach a quick agreement could push oil prices even higher, as both sides remain committed to their core conditions. Iran insists on separating the maritime shipping issue from the nuclear file, while the United States rejects this separation and demands a comprehensive resolution from the beginning.’
Brent crude maintains trading above $110 per barrel
Brent crude continued to trade above the $110 per barrel level today, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing concerns over disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy trade routes.
Brent crude rose to around $111.26 per barrel during today’s trading session, after touching higher levels near $112, amid continued deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the failure to reach a quick agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or containing military escalation.
Investors are closely monitoring political developments between Washington and Tehran, especially after reports indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposals regarding de-escalation, which increased concerns that disruptions to global oil supplies may continue for a longer period.
Analysts believe that continued closure or disruption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels per day pass, could push prices into a range between $110 and $150 per barrel if the crisis continues without clear diplomatic solutions.
Expectations of an extended U.S. blockade on some Iranian ports also contributed to increasing the geopolitical risk premium in the markets, driving oil prices to record an eighth consecutive session of gains, amid rising fears of a new inflationary wave that could impact the global economy.
Energy experts confirm that the market has become increasingly sensitive to any political developments in the region, especially given that a significant portion of global supplies depends on the stability of Gulf exports, making Brent crude more vulnerable to further volatility in the coming days.
Dollar holds steady as markets await U.S. Interest rate decision
The U.S. dollar remained stable during Wednesday’s trading session, as global markets stayed cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which is widely expected to keep rates unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
The U.S. Dollar Index traded steadily near the 98.6 level after experiencing limited fluctuations in recent days, as investors continued to move toward safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly with stalled U.S.-Iran talks and persistent concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors are paying close attention to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could shape the path of monetary policy in the coming months, especially as inflationary pressures continue due to rising oil prices and growing concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth.
Some major currencies also weakened against the dollar, with the euro and British pound posting slight declines, while the Japanese yen remained close to the 160 level against the dollar, as markets also await decisions from other central banks this week, including the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.
Analysts believe that this Federal Reserve decision goes beyond interest rates alone, as it also affects investor expectations regarding the timing of any potential future rate cuts, particularly with energy prices continuing to rise and directly impacting inflation levels.
Under these conditions, the dollar remains supported as a safe-haven asset, while markets stay alert for any new signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of monetary policy during the second half of the year.
Looking Ahead
Global markets are closely awaiting today’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, amid broad expectations that rates will remain unchanged, as inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the global economy. Investors are placing significant importance on this decision, as it is considered the final interest rate decision under the leadership of current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.